Unit 2: Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet!

According to an article put out by PBS, there is a new, more advanced way to tell who will win the presidential election that is better than polls. Using a website called Predictit and poll data, a new marketplace for determining the president has been created. On this website polling data and political analyses are put together and allow users to “invest” in specific candidates based on that information. David Rothschild attributes the success of political investments to the fact that putting your money where your mouth is causes more political focus. By actually betting on who will win the election with real money, you put more than just your opinion on the line. Those who invest are more likely to actually research the issues and thus further the democratic process.

I believe that this means of predicting who will win the presidency is a more effective means than merely polling. When you poll, you are only asking who people think will win right here and now, whereas investing real money not only sparks capitalism, but makes people look towards the future. This relates heavily to unit 2 because it talks heavily about how polls can be used and how accurate they are. This is a more effective means because it has also been shown in inspire higher voting rates, because money speaks louder than anything. The cost is also relatively low, so no one has to worry about deep debt. Using the free market to determine public opinion is the American way, as we have always been about making money. Making someone invest in a candidate also eliminates people who a falsely inflating someone’s ratings, as they have to put real money in, which further helps the accuracy. I see free market polling as the new American Political culture, with those of both extreme and moderate political views able to express their thoughts. Polls have to be scientific, random, and non leading to be accurate, which this method completely eliminates, making it easier on not just the person administering the site, but the users as well. Finally, this site mirrors the political values of many, who view money as the big determining factor of victory.

Link: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/something-better-than-polls-for-political-predictions-you-bet/