Unit 2: Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet!

According to an article put out by PBS, there is a new, more advanced way to tell who will win the presidential election that is better than polls. Using a website called Predictit and poll data, a new marketplace for determining the president has been created. On this website polling data and political analyses are put together and allow users to “invest” in specific candidates based on that information. David Rothschild attributes the success of political investments to the fact that putting your money where your mouth is causes more political focus. By actually betting on who will win the election with real money, you put more than just your opinion on the line. Those who invest are more likely to actually research the issues and thus further the democratic process.

I believe that this means of predicting who will win the presidency is a more effective means than merely polling. When you poll, you are only asking who people think will win right here and now, whereas investing real money not only sparks capitalism, but makes people look towards the future. This relates heavily to unit 2 because it talks heavily about how polls can be used and how accurate they are. This is a more effective means because it has also been shown in inspire higher voting rates, because money speaks louder than anything. The cost is also relatively low, so no one has to worry about deep debt. Using the free market to determine public opinion is the American way, as we have always been about making money. Making someone invest in a candidate also eliminates people who a falsely inflating someone’s ratings, as they have to put real money in, which further helps the accuracy. I see free market polling as the new American Political culture, with those of both extreme and moderate political views able to express their thoughts. Polls have to be scientific, random, and non leading to be accurate, which this method completely eliminates, making it easier on not just the person administering the site, but the users as well. Finally, this site mirrors the political values of many, who view money as the big determining factor of victory.

Link: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/something-better-than-polls-for-political-predictions-you-bet/

Paris Climate Accord Under Attack

According to an article put out by the New York Times, the Supreme Court has recently halted President Obama's climate change regulation. This could cause the already tentative global warming accord, signed in Paris less than two months ago, to crumble completely. Historically speaking, the United States has been the largest contributor of greenhouse gases, although China and India have recently caught up. If America fails to follow through on their end of the climate deal, China and India may also default on their promises. However, the climate change regulation has not been permanently stopped, only temporarily, as the Supreme Court ways the legal issues behind the matter. 

This article shows that even the best of plans, with the purest intentions, do not always go as planned. While this may not seem like a very fair thing to do, it is the right of the Supreme Court, under checks and balances, to make sure everything that the President does is legal. Without these separation of powers, the President would be able to make all of the key decisions, and no one could stop him. This applies greatly to what we are talking about, as without the Constitution and Constitutionalism, the Supreme Court would have no right to check the executive's power. The Supreme Court has the right to test the Constitutionality of a measure, even if that measure may be for the greater good of not just humanity, but the Earth as well. 

Link to the Article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/us/politics/carbon-emissions-paris-climate-accord.html

John Marshall: The Father of the Supreme Court

John Marshall was born in Virginia on September 24, 1755, the oldest of fifteen siblings, eight sisters, and six brothers. Although his family was rather large, and several of his cousins lived with him through his childhood, he never wanted for anything, as his father, Thomas Marshall, was a land surveyor for Lord Fairfax. He was well educated by not only his father, but from an ordained Christian Minister, and an academy in a Washington parish as well. By the time he served in the American Revolutionary War, Marshall had read the works of Livy, Horace, Shakespeare, and Alexander Pope, along with being well versed in Latin as well. He served in the Continental Army as a Captain of the Eleventh Virginia Continental Regiment from 1776 to 1780. Soon after his service in the war, in 1782, John Marshall began his career in politics.

From 1782 to 1789 John Marshall served as a member of the Virginia House of Delegates, and was one of the main forces behind getting the Constitution passed in Virginia. Not long after getting it passed, Marshall decided that he aligned more with the Federalist party, the enemies of Jefferson’s Democratic Republicans. All while participating in politics, John Marshall’s personal law firm flourished, with his first appearance before the Supreme Court, something that he would dominate in the not too distant future, coming as a result of the Ware v. Hylton case. He was offered the position of Attorney General under George Washington, which he declined. He was also offered the position of Minister to France, another title he also declined. He did however accept to be part of the three man team that would become part of the XYZ Affair, which decreased public sentiment towards France even further. Not long after, Marshall ran for the House of Representatives, winning the seat with the help of Patrick Henry and his popularity through handling the XYZ Affair. In 1800 Marshall was appointed John Adams’ Secretary of State, foreshadowing his eventual rise to Supreme Court Justice.

Following John Adams’ defeat in the election of 1800, the Federalist party sought to maintain some presence in national politics, as the Executive and Legislative branches had both been won by the Democratic Republicans, so Adams nominated Marshall to the position of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. He was officially confirmed to the Supreme Court in January 1801, and started his tenure as Chief Justice in February, although he maintained his Secretary of State status for another month, making him both a cabinet member and Justice. Using his powerful personality and leadership skills, Marshall was able to shape the way the Supreme Court acts to this day. He changed the way the Supreme Court announced decisions, going from every Justice writing their own decision, to one single decision capturing the entirety of the case. This allowed John Marshall to enforce his will and become the spokesman for the Supreme Court. Not only did he change how decisions were made, he made it so Supreme Court Justices wore simple black robes with no powdered wigs, instead of the fancy robes that Justices in England wore.

As the longest serving Supreme Court Chief Justice in American history, Marshall was able to use his Federalist views to influence the Federal government long after the Federalist party had died off. He participated in over 1000 decisions, writing over 500 of them himself, and was only on the losing side of constitutional case once, in Ogden v. Saunders. He was the main force behind Marbury v. Madison, the case that decided Judicial Review, McCulloch v. Maryland, which allowed for a Federal Bank, and Gibbons v. Ogden, which allowed Congress to regulate interstate commerce. His work behind the Supreme Court established it as a powerful third of the United States government, where before it had lagged behind. John Marshall set a precedent that would be followed for generations to come, and almost single-handedly established judicial review, something we now take for granted.




For more information, check out this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-lMadHIfYE
Sources: http://www.biography.com/people/john-marshall-9400148#mcculloch-v-maryland
http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/biographies/john-marshall/